Playing Different Size LPs in Meteora
文章目录
This is my very first position in LPs, it's Oct 16 2024
I started LPs on @MeteoraAG from 1.2 sol that's all i have in solana 2 years ago. This is how LPs now :
For one and half year, i LPing with the same size 5-10 sol per month as the starting point and what i earned that month, i transfer in to a new wallet and do stable LPs.
I've consistently printing $2k-$3k per month with that size, avg size is around 5 sol for the whole year, except when SOL hit under 100, i play with 10 sol ish.
In reality it's decent profit when you live in third world country, with that consistent profit each month you are at least top 5% people in Indonesia.
I never had a balls to sized into memecoin or at least a runner that reach 10m, no matter how much is the marketcap is, i play same size, at some time 20 sol is my max.
It seems like a healthy risk management and it literally is. But, when i travel to another country with living cost 2-5x than my country, i realized that $2k per mo is average salaryman, you can only eat like twice a month on a nice restaurant.
First Cycle
People who sized into memecoin like we see in @fomo heavily sized 6-7 figs in a single illiquid memecoin are literally the people who have at least had same situation like before.
People who start their web3 from LPs see a token as different, ofc it's because we only play single-side sol only, most of LPs use this strategy, a few playing double side or token side because the risk is worse than single-side.
They see token from 1m, 5m, all the way up to 40m and choose to stay LPs with the same size.
I think it's normal because it's their first cycle, the won't screw it up. But, people who stays longer than first timer had different perspective people like @Tuuxxdotsol who heavily sized into a 10-30m token with thousands of solami they clearly know something or had same situation before
Bear Market Trauma
People won't sizing into memecoins because bear market trauma, they very comfortable with size they have, but when try to sizing it's late, the chart dump only and because lack of mentality - they never seen lost that way more than their monthly profit in a position and make them trauma
When market start to seems right like the last 2 month they won't top blasting with size. We see couple runners like last 2 months $ANSEM, $STONK, $ZCAT, $e/acc, $CATE and many moreee.
When chart demanding top-blasting people often ignore it, although that the best time to top-blasting, with a bear market trauma they afraid - to get rinsed.
Level Up My Game
This is how my pnl growth overtime, May $1.5k - Jun $7k - July $11k - Sept $32k
It's quite big gap between months, because i think when you feel familiar about a meta you'll know how's the end and when to exit
Last months quite different, i finally to sized more and more everyday. We all printing on Robinhood last 2 months, i also started from $500 and flip it to $100k in nearly 2 months because i sized.
This behavior change how i play on DLMM last months, If i had the knowledge and know how this is end - why i didn't sized?
When To Sizing?
People often confuse when to sizing but look at this graph below :
This is how everything - in crypto - or even in this worlds works. Innovators is people who found the meta let's say "token paired with stocks" this is last 2 months meta.
Robinhood start it from longxyz to pons and solana where home of all finance - tokenized stocks in @LaunchOnSF. This is the part of innovators slice, people who started the meta. Same like @blknoiz06 who started token held by people 50-70% supply.
Then came early adopters, people who thinks that meta is brilliant idea, they popularize it, they talk about on the timeline. But, people still comfortable with the last meta
This - when you have experienced one cycle in crypto you'll know that this part is crucial, you know that this things is printing hard and you know it will last for about a month more less.
This is how the situation on early September, people still comfort with LPs on Robinhood, but they didn't realize that stonk pumped to 20m - 200m in 3 days that time.
Stonk is different - they had transfer fee who make people holding longer and their pool had 1-3% ish base fee which more higher than pumpfun launch, pumpfun had 0.25%-1% fees on their seed pool and from that transfer fee it's used for rewarding holder.
This is a basic knowledge that people doesn't realize it's a big different, stonk created holding meta which really great for LPs, chart didn't nuked at least for 2-6 days.
I start to sized here, deploying $5-10k in each position, resulting me net $10k a week, which is my monthly profit last month.
It seems like you never lose when this holding meta started, people may sell their bags but with most of buyback and burn mechanism or social trading application, big KOLs like @unipcs who had motion start to realize that this kind of meta is great and start bidding.
When people that parts of early adopters start to posting their PnL early majority came, they rushed, want to be the part of the game and still rewarding we can still sized here.
This is a time when the main runner start dumping - because late majority came, is too crowded, people start fudding to get better entry.
When there's a main runner that reached hundred millions and start dumping hard it's a time that you need to be careful. Tons of rugged runners also it's a time when you need to pull yourself a bit most people enter here and get rugged
Meta Shifting
This time come when there's a tokens with a good tech, literally good tech, but people ignore it. It's like if this token spawned 2 weeks ago, this will run to 10-50m feeling.
This is when "laggards" part start. People already tired of the same tek with a few change, it's literally the same ruggers that want to destroy the vision of innovators.
There's quite like late majority and laggards then still denial about the situation, they're very comfortable with what they have, never want to learns and realize and wait there's new meta.
This mentality is where most of people get rinsed again - also greedy that most of people doesn't realize they quite act like it.
When 80% of your timeline start talking about what you do last months, it's time when meta gonna shifting. Run.
Risk Management
Never risk money you can afford to lose.
That's the principal number one, no matter how skilled you are there's always a moment that you may miss and make you rinsed.
For me, when i started with my 10% port, let's i had $10k, i can risk 10%, so i started with $1k on my wallet.
How i play - if i early adopters, i'll go all in and compound all the way up to like $10k, when i on the early majority i'll split that up to 3 positions each 30%.
Maybe you do flat sized or maybe you compound your gains, but when you're early you need to compound it all, if you can afford the loss that's good you still had money to play, but chance like that when you're early may going 1-3x in a year.
The most size in LPs per position i think is $10k on 10-20m mcap, 50m+ is around $20k, 100m mcap we can go with $50k. under 10m is $5k but under 5m $1-3k is the most size people used
The problem isn't your entry, but your exit, had a full bag of memecoin let's say $10k, you will eat most of the slippage.
Conclusion
When you're in a part of early adopters - early majority, extract as much as you need, top blast it.
The situation is when there's new tech (ofc it's not new, it's just recycled) and it's run to hundred millions, go all in. Fuck for everyone bidding the beta.
This is the time when you need to go sized, not in weak market when everything feels so boring like today, people already tired about launchpad.
Wait and see, sometimes - the best strategy is nothing.
